Via Matthew Yglesias today comes news that both Rudy Guiliani and Newt Gingrich are gearing up to become the new fervent defenders of marriage. As followers of US politics will know (or if you follow through the links) both men have been married multiple times, with long standing accusations about infidelity following them to. Yglesias makes the obvious & easy case of the sheer hypocrisy of such men trying to defend the institution of marriage. But there’s a more interesting question at play: Given both come from the much more socially liberal wing of the Republican party, and neither are that religiously observant, why are both choosing to help remake themselves by becoming just one more right winger to rail against the supposed civilization destroying evil that is two people of the same gender wanting to get married.

Both are looking at a return to politics, fearful their best days are behind them. Gingrich perhaps just to maintain his standing as a commentator, but word is Rudy wants to run for Governor of NY (Where current Governor David Patterson is currently introducing a new bill to allow same-sex marriage, a move which already has 53% popularity.Both also seem much more comfortable with homosexuals in their own lives than say Pat Robertson, so given this move is entirely political, wouldn’t the smarter political move be to come out in favor of homosexual marriage?

Such a move would be bold and cause a lot more attention to be paid to them and their opinion on the full gamete of issue (For instance much like Meagan McCain, daughter of the failed presidential candidate who is steadily building a career as a republican commentator in part by supporting equal marriage).
Likewise, as the polls indicate, in their area’s Rudy & Newt frequent of NY and Washington such a move is already quite popular, and critically that number is sure to rise. The biggest split on the issue of marriage is generational, though you can also expect an effective socialisation to ripple through the public body, as people come to see that Massachusetts, Vermont, Iowa & Connecticut have not sunk into the sea, or turned into wild cesspit of immorality by allowing people to commit themselves for the rest of their lives to each other in a legally and morally binding ceremony. In short, the case against Gay Marriage is a losers cause, and whilst it will be a long time before it’s uncontroversial (and so currently is useful for riling up the republican base), the public mind is changing and the direction it is changing is perfectly obvious for even the dullest political minds to see.
Which raises my final point, perhaps the best days of these two men really are behind them, by challenging their party on such an issue and help leading its change, homosexual marriage presents a great legacy issue for both. Whilst everyone forgets the names of the souther states democrats who challenged and held back the civil rights movement for as long as possible, those who came to see the need for change and acted are remembered as hero’s. Lyndon Johnson’s record whilst smeared by Vietnam and the end of the Great Society project, will always be tied with his great acts on Civil Rights. In the face of his party, and perhaps some of his own opinions too, Johnson made the changes which were necessary, and forthcoming, and tied his name indefinably to the cause. For that, he will always be remembered, and forgiven his other sins. Leading the charge to allow equal marriage would be a similar (though smaller) cause for both men. It would guarantee that they would always be associated by history with having lead on an issue their party resisted, as having courageously stood up (one shouldn’t underestimate the controversy this would bring), but end up ensuring both men end with a much more positive record for history, and for having been no more foresighted than to have read the polls and known which way the ground was shifting.

Both want to stay relevant and listened to. Both have vaulting ambitions (not least of all to end the careers in the oval office), and yet here they have both taken the dull and predictable move of re-branding themselves as strong opponents of homosexuals getting married. Coming out in support of such a change however would get them noticed, make them much more acceptable to the young voters they would need to win back from Obama, lets them re-claim their parties tag as concerned with liberty, and whether it works or not, ensure they go down in history as leaders not followers on a major issue.