If you are in need of a laugh, and your sense of humor tends towards the black, then you can’t miss Alan Jones interview last week with Malcolm Turnbull. You have to feel sorry for Turnbull given the squawking queen performance of Jones denying Climate Change, and demanding Turnbull adopt policies he simultaneously knows are impossible (such as forcing India/Pakistan to take the boat people).
That said, however much I feel sorry for Turnbull, his and the Liberal party problems are nothing compared to that faced by their Republican Party colleagues in the USA. This may be a strange thing to write just a few days after Republicans won Governor races in Virginia and New Jersey. But the real heat of the fight was always the congressional seat of NY-23. It’s a very instructive story for the problems faced by Conservatives in the US. They can’t control their base, they are now losing battles they thought comfortably won, and could even split in the face of an insurgent uprising from their right. But first to a small seat in upstate, rural New York:
NY-23 is a small congressional seat that has not voted Democrat since prior to the Civil War. The Local Republican party elected a candidate named Dede Scozzafava. Deciding she was far too moderate for their liking, party Right-Wing heavyweights such as Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty, Glenn Beck & Rush Limmbaugh endorsed the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. That is, members & boosters of the Republican Party, including their former Vice-President candidate endorsed a third-party candidate in an ultra-safe seat. And they managed to lead the party to Victory defeat.
Post-election coverage has naturally been spun to say state governorships are the important thing (they arn’t), but they were also very hum-drum affairs unreflective of the national debate. They featured unpopular local governors, poor economic times, and a tendency for voters to swing after big change elections. Not a good result for the democrats, but nothing amazing. Likewise Republican/Independent Mike Bloomberg scrapped back in as NY Mayor by spending about $180 per vote. Ie not a good time for incumbents.
In Australia Turnbull is threatened with the loss of 14% of his coalition at absolute worse should it split. However this would give his party many opportunities for picking up new seats and allow a re-forging of their image. Equally it would let them regain absolute discipline in the party, and improve the leaders image. Not the greatest but manageable with some opportunities included.
The Republicans in the US however have only just held off an insurgent attack from the right on their party, and in the processed sacrificed a safe seat for it in congress. Yet given the nature of the activists they face, the loss has instead encouraged the insurgents. Such is their close connection to reality. In turn the Republican party has responded by capitulating and agreeing not to get involved in or fund candidates in primaries. In Australia you almost can’t win a seat without the establishment pre-choosing you, in the US right, the establishment is afraid of it’s own base.
This is a party which lost both houses, in the Congress and Senate in 2008. Its loss on the presidancy was a virtual guarantee, with its former leader having some of the worst ratings of a President in history. Its chief opponent is smart, moderate, has a unique cool and symbolic status, and is putting electoral victory above ideology. He will be very very hard to beat.
Equally, whatever annoyance Turnbull may face from shrills like Jones, it’s nothing compared to the power of presenters such as Rush Limbaugh. GOP chief Michael Steel had to apologize for calling Limbaugh an ‘entertainer’, along with South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford (of hiking the Appalachian trail fame), and congressmen such as Phil Gingrey and Todd Tiahrt all for offending the great Rush. Turnbull ridicules Jones to his face, US republicans grovel before Rush. The comparison is stark.
The only energy on the Republican’s side comes from the extremists of the party, who are holding their own rallies, and supporting extremist theories such as Obama wasn’t born in the USA or is a radical communist. Neither of which endears the public to support them nationally.
The one shining light the Republicans have this year is the heat and noise created by the fight over health care. This is a 60 years plus fight by democrats, that usually has died with a whimper in some congressional committee, and then is forgotten (that’s at best, at worst like 1994 it nearly killed Clinton’s presidency). The one big hope Republicans had was to defeat Obama on this score and prove he was a radical or couldn’t govern. Last night at 11:09pm the US House of Representatives passed their version of the Healthcare Bill. The bill now has to go before the Senate, which was always the real fight.(Actually the biggest challenge is to allow the bill to even be voted on, as I mentioned a few days ago, it requires a supermajority of 60 votes to stop delaying tactics and force a vote. Democrats have 58 members, with 2 independents who support them. But lax party discipline compared to what we see in Australia, or even their US Republican counterparts.)
Health care reform is not yet law, but it has gotten far closer than ever before. If it does pass, it will be with very strong public support, and show that Democrats can govern and deliver on their promises. And (as Republicans really fear) once the public get used to having some level of government involvement (though they already accept Medicare for seniors and veterans/congressional care by govt) then expanding it for all the working poor will be a much easier option than initially pushing through the legislation. So whilst things are pretty horrible for Malcolm Turnbull and Australian conservatives at the moment, spare a thought for their US counterparts. For all the heat and noise they’ve created, their support is cratering, and the insurgents are driving them to the fringe, and the leaders are afraid to fight them. It’s even plausible the party could split if this keeps up, with a “Conservative” Party offshoot.
The GOP is a party that lost the public’s faith in its conduct of War, Economics and Culture. It is being challenged by a President it still doesn’t understand, and is being pushed to the brink on a bill it thought it had defeated 60 years ago, certainly at least destroyed the rationality for 20 years ago with Reagan. It is in a primal scream of rage and impotence, right now, and deeply in pain. Worse, it is facing an enemy not comfortably coming from where the guns are faced, coast ward towards the left, but from the inland, the right. And it’s former hero’s such as Palin and Pawlenty are leading the charge against it. Unlikely, but something to watch. In many ways they remind me of the French revolutionary, who see’s a crowd flooding by and declares “I must find out where they are going so I may lead them”. The GOP leaders, freshly into the benches of opposition are desperate for any way back to power. They have tried to force their ways back into power, to demand it, to insist on it. Yet the public ends up disfavoring them far more thanthe hapless democrats.
So keep your head up Malcolm, in comparison you’ve got it easy.
Pat H
/ November 23, 2009Note: Obama campaigned for the Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey where they lost. The only place that he did NOT go campaign was New York – 23, where the Democrats won.
Also, recent polling shows that only 35% of Americans now support this insane “Health Care” bill, while 51% oppose it.
http://www.issuesandjustice.com/the-people-speak-on-obamacare-35-favor-51-oppose/
Andrew Carr
/ November 24, 2009Hi Pat
You’re right that Obama couldn’t command the crowds as he did in the campaign, but that’s also to be expected. His organising network clearly has suffered in energy and numbers, however they are still having a big impact in healthcare as i discussed here: http://andrewcarr.org/?p=1157
As for the polling, the process of passing legislation is always ugly so it’s no surprise that support has dropped somewhat (other polls have it much closer). But equally some of that is the loss from democrat supporters who are insistent on a public option – http://tiny.cc/7jCNW
Unlike the bush years, it seems the left is willing to move on obama in polling if they don’t like what he’s doing. So out of those who oppose some are doing so because they want a much stronger bill (as do I) and figure this is a way to show it. It’s a dynamic we didn’t see in the bush years, but I’m not yet sure the media has fully picked up on it.
Obama has a few troubles, but I’d still rather be a generic democrat than a generic republican at the moment. Opposition always gives you some short term victories over the government, but it often gets forgotten just as quickly. So things like Van Jones, bowing, etc whilst news for a day and perhaps pleasing to opponents, arn’t substitutes for having policies that the people prefer instead. Anger is no substitute for better policies and better liked politicians, but too many oppositions around the world forget that.
Pat H
/ November 24, 2009You make a lot of good points. As a Huckabee fan, I hope that this bill for a government take-over of our health insurance fails. It seems like I remember a leader of Australia having come over to the USA for some kind of medical care that wasn’t available to him, in Australia, without a long waiting period. Do you recall an incident like this? Seems like he was the head of the legislature or something like that. If that’s true, what would he have done if we had the same problem in the USA, of long waiting times?
Andrew Carr
/ November 24, 2009I don’t recall the incident though it is probable.
However it would likely have been due to the type of treatment needed rather than a question of access. There are waiting times for non-emergency treatments in Oz, though if you have for private health insurance you can usually get in pretty quickly. More likely, it was a case the US had the worlds best surgeons/new treatments that were desired.
That’s not a surprise, the US leads in most fields of technology and innovation, and I don’t see any way it would change given the passage of Obama’s bill or even a much more fundamental shift to something like the Australian model (which has a public system by default ensuring universal coverage, with a private level on top if you want to pay more/receive a slightly higher/quicker standard of care)
Oz’s system has its warts, but you don’t go broke if you get sick, you can change job without worrying about coverage, We can choose our own doctors and surgeons, everyone is given coverage, and we pay about 11% of our GDP for it compared to 15% in the US.
I strongly support market systems, but in a few area’s I just don’t see that the process can work as intended. Markets need clear price signals, information for competitors and real choices (such as not participating, which isn’t really an option for healthcare). This flaw is something even Friedrich Hayek recognized in Road to Serfdom, calling for a public funded form of insurance.
Even though the polls are dropping on Obamacare, it seems pretty clear Americans want health care reform. Seems a great opportunity for Huckabee to differentiate himself from his primary competitors by proposing a big change. Perhaps something like Romney did as Governor, or borrow from Australia’s model. It’s not perfect, but its better for the people and the nations finances, with no real infringement on individuals liberty either.
Cheers though for your comments.