SubscribeEveryone’s first impression is a slap in the face for the Govt, and demand for a policy change on asylum seekers. (Which probably should happened anyway). Rudd really only has himself to blame for this, but whilst the Conservatives may be crowing in their champagne today, I think this poll actually represents a lethal threat to Turnbull’s position.
In politics, much of life is momentum. The only time it’s ok to be static is if you’re stratospheric (as Rudd has been). Turnbull thanks to this big swing in one poll (Essential Report, released Monday held steady) will now have a lot of expectations building in the backbenches and press by next fortnight. Unless Rudd makes an absolute shambles of the issue or does a nudey run and interrupts the Melbourne cup this afternoon, the Coalition is guaranteed to drop back down 3-4 points next poll, if not the full 7.
Add in a return to pressure on Climate Change with a vote due on the ETS (which the Coalition is still divided on), the threat from Joyce to quit the coalition, Turnbull’s anemic 19% rating in this poll and that November is the typical killing ground for wayward opposition leaders (Crean, Beazley (with Downer & Latham going early in the new year) and his rise today is sure to cause far greater grief down the track. Check out Possum for the wonky stuff
As they say in Pilots school, flying is perfectly safe, it’s the landings that will kill you.
Jacob
/ November 3, 2009Just as a matter of interest Andrew, in your opinion, if the government does start losing a little popularity do you think that will spur them into making some tough decisions, or do you think they will go for more of the same i.e, populist measures that never upset anyone? They may wish to appear that it is not the case, but the government is hyper-conscious of polls and the like I’m sure.
Andrew Carr
/ November 4, 2009If anything a loss of popularity will drive a far greater populism from Rudd. He doesn’t have a lot of options in the short term (ie you can’t just hire 20 new customs boats and have them in the water next week), so expect a review (for post-election release) and some tougher penalties.
Rudd has the curious tick of becoming even more cautious as his popularity rises. Where Howard would get looser and more ideological, Rudd seems to burrow down. Only when he is under pressure does he seem to want to take risks.
What I’m not sure of is if thats simply a good electoral strategy against a hapless opposition or his natural style ideally suited to the times. Either way he’s found a formula that has worked to take down Howard, intimidate Costello, deport Nelson and cower Turnbull.
While progressives will still vote for Rudd, a lot are rather disappointed in him. He isn’t enacting long held left wing goals, nor is he making a serious play to bring in small l liberals and centrists long term. He seems happy to just have their support as a pragmatic alternative to Turnbull. Once the Libs get a decent platform going (which I still think Turnbull could present if allowed post-election) he could lose that centrist/liberal support very quickly.