Comments on: That Newspoll http://andrewcarr.org/?p=1231 Australian academic and blogger on politics, international relations, and culture Mon, 03 May 2010 01:48:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Andrew Carr http://andrewcarr.org/?p=1231&cpage=1#comment-359 Andrew Carr Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:59:49 +0000 http://andrewcarr.org/?p=1231#comment-359 If anything a loss of popularity will drive a far greater populism from Rudd. He doesn't have a lot of options in the short term (ie you can't just hire 20 new customs boats and have them in the water next week), so expect a review (for post-election release) and some tougher penalties. Rudd has the curious tick of becoming even more cautious as his popularity rises. Where Howard would get looser and more ideological, Rudd seems to burrow down. Only when he is under pressure does he seem to want to take risks. What I'm not sure of is if thats simply a good electoral strategy against a hapless opposition or his natural style ideally suited to the times. Either way he's found a formula that has worked to take down Howard, intimidate Costello, deport Nelson and cower Turnbull. While progressives will still vote for Rudd, a lot are rather disappointed in him. He isn't enacting long held left wing goals, nor is he making a serious play to bring in small l liberals and centrists long term. He seems happy to just have their support as a pragmatic alternative to Turnbull. Once the Libs get a decent platform going (which I still think Turnbull could present if allowed post-election) he could lose that centrist/liberal support very quickly. If anything a loss of popularity will drive a far greater populism from Rudd. He doesn’t have a lot of options in the short term (ie you can’t just hire 20 new customs boats and have them in the water next week), so expect a review (for post-election release) and some tougher penalties.

Rudd has the curious tick of becoming even more cautious as his popularity rises. Where Howard would get looser and more ideological, Rudd seems to burrow down. Only when he is under pressure does he seem to want to take risks.

What I’m not sure of is if thats simply a good electoral strategy against a hapless opposition or his natural style ideally suited to the times. Either way he’s found a formula that has worked to take down Howard, intimidate Costello, deport Nelson and cower Turnbull.

While progressives will still vote for Rudd, a lot are rather disappointed in him. He isn’t enacting long held left wing goals, nor is he making a serious play to bring in small l liberals and centrists long term. He seems happy to just have their support as a pragmatic alternative to Turnbull. Once the Libs get a decent platform going (which I still think Turnbull could present if allowed post-election) he could lose that centrist/liberal support very quickly.

]]> By: Jacob http://andrewcarr.org/?p=1231&cpage=1#comment-358 Jacob Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:37:18 +0000 http://andrewcarr.org/?p=1231#comment-358 Just as a matter of interest Andrew, in your opinion, if the government does start losing a little popularity do you think that will spur them into making some tough decisions, or do you think they will go for more of the same i.e, populist measures that never upset anyone? They may wish to appear that it is not the case, but the government is hyper-conscious of polls and the like I'm sure. Just as a matter of interest Andrew, in your opinion, if the government does start losing a little popularity do you think that will spur them into making some tough decisions, or do you think they will go for more of the same i.e, populist measures that never upset anyone? They may wish to appear that it is not the case, but the government is hyper-conscious of polls and the like I’m sure.

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